中国的软着陆可能变硬

今年头几个月，中国经济是否过热的问题一直困扰着经济学家。随后，中国政府于4月份施行了一系列行政措施，以遏制经济增长势头。亚洲经济能否实现软着陆的问题随即成为讨论焦点。
For the early part of this year, economists were seized by the question of whether the Chinese economy was overheating. Then after Beijing imposed a series of administrative curbs in April, the burning issue became whether Asia's economy could pull off a soft landing.
现在，随着中国经济看来有望在今年温和放缓，一个新问题又开始呈现：今年的“软着陆”会变成明年的“硬着陆”吗？
Now, as China appears on course to achieve a gentle slowdown this year, a new question has begun to crystalise: could this year's soft landing turn into a hard one next year?
这样的担心有些道理。官方数据显示，中国经济上半年增长了9.6%，这主要是由固定资产投资推动，2003年固定资产投资为总的国内生产总值(GDP)贡献了47%。
There are some grounds for such a concern. The economy, which grew by an official 9.6 per cent in the first half, has been driven mainly by investments in fixed assets, which in 2003 contributed 47 per cent of overall gross domestic product.
投资反过来由房产价格上涨推动，而房产价格上涨刺激了房屋建设。与此同时，企业产品销售活跃，加之出口强劲，都促使工厂扩大产能。地方政府在吸引潜在新投资的激励下，建设了成千上万的工业园区和引人瞩目的办公大楼。
That investment was, in turn, propelled by a rise in property prices that stimulated the construction of houses. Bouyant sales of corporate products and robust exports, meanwhile, prompted factories to expand capacity. Local governments, galvanised to attract the new investment on offer, built thousands of industrial parks and showy office blocks.
很快，投资创造出令人担忧的更多投资需求。但只要企业能实现健康的利润率和强劲的销售，似乎没什么真正的理由需要担心。
Soon, investment was creating demand for more investment which worried people. But as long as companies could point to healthy profit margins and brisk sales, there seemed little genuine cause for concern.
但是，前两年经济扩张的基石现在可能正开始出现裂缝。企业库存已开始急剧攀升，主要原因是生产过量。一些重要行业的利润率已开始收窄。而且，如果美国经济放缓，中国的出口需求也将受到打击。
But now the rock on which the last two years of economic expansion was founded may be starting to crack. Corporate inventories have begun to rise sharply, mainly due to overproduction. Profit margins in some key industrial sectors are narrowing. And if the US economy slows, export demand will also be hit.
中国央行中国人民银行(PBoC)对5000家大中型企业的一项调查发现，与去年同期相比，今年7月份的企业库存攀升了19.9%，达9530亿元人民币（合1150亿美元）。这是1996年以来的最高水平，而1996年之后，中国的经济增长开始进入为期三年的下降趋势。
A survey of 5,000 large and medium-sized companies by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank, found that inventories climbed 19.9 per cent to Rmb953bn ($115bn; €95bn; ￡64bn) in July compared with the same month a year ago. This was the highest level since 1996, the year before China's growth trajectory embarked on a three year downtrend.
经济学家表示，随着库存增加、利润率缩减，在接下来几个月中，企业可能会推迟、减少或搁置它们计划好的产能扩张。这样的转变在汽车行业最为明显。汽车业是2003年和今年上半年经济增长的中流砥柱。
Economists say that, over the next few months, companies are likely to delay, scale back or mothball their planned capacity expansions as inventories rise and margins narrow. Such a turnround is most visible in the motor industry, the mainstay of the economy in 2003 and during the first half of this year.
7月份，中国的汽车产量年度同比下降逾20%，此前由于汽车价格下降和最近实施的汽车贷款获取限制，汽车销售的增长大大放缓。
In July, China's car output fell by more than 20 per cent year-on-year after a dramatic slowing in sales growth caused both by the falling price of cars and recently-imposed curbs on the availability of vehicle financing.
官方数据显示，汽车公司去年的销售几乎翻倍，而且今年早些时候，每月的销售都以近40%至50%的速度增长。但今年7月，汽车销售的年度同比增长仅为2%。汽车公司原计划在2007年前以超过100亿美元的成本使产能提高两倍，上述趋势必将令它们重新审视这个计划。一位政府官员说：“钢铁厂、水泥厂、铝厂和其它一些公司看准汽车业将迅猛增长，因而已扩张了自己的产能，这些公司可能不得不三思。”
After virtually doubling last year and rising at a rate of about 40 to 50 per cent a month earlier this year, car companies managed to achieve a mere 2 per cent sales increase in July year-on-year, official figures show. This is bound to make companies re-examine plans to triple capacity by 2007 at a cost of more than $10bn. “The steel plants, cement plants, aluminium plants and others that have expanded their capacity betting on the blistering pace of the auto industry's expansion may have to think again,” says one government official.
房地产是另一个推动投资的领域。在第二季度，中国35座主要城市的房产平均价格与去年同期相比上涨了10.4%。这种上涨刺激了需求，而通货膨胀率在5%左右，实际抵押贷款利率近乎零，这又使需求得到强化。但中国人民银行担忧，城市房产价格平均上涨10%，可能很容易形成泡沫。一位官员表示：“我们必须采取一些行动来控制房地产市场。”一旦实行为房地产市场降温的措施，总体固定资产投资肯定会有所下降。
The other area market driving investment is property. Average prices in 35 main Chinese cities rose 10.4 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. Such gains have stimulated demand, intensified by inflation at around 5 per cent and real mortgage rates near zero. But the PBoC is worried that an average 10 per cent rise in urban property prices could easily create a bubble. “We must do something to rein in the property market,” says one official. If measures to cool the property market materialise, the overall fixed asset investment is sure to take a hit.
刺激国内投资的最后一个因素是出口，国内的财富转移不会对其造成损害，而美国需求可能减速却会令其受到损伤。截至7月底的7个月中，中国出口达到3091.2亿美元，较去年同期增长了35.5%，因而对外部需求的依赖相当大。
The last motivator of domestic investment exports is vulnerable not to internal shifts in fortune but to a possible slowdown in US demand. With exports in the seven months to end-July reaching $309.12bn and rising 35.5 per cent from the same period a year earlier, the reliance of China on external demand is considerable.
今年公司投资强劲，尤其是在纺织和电子消费品领域，其中大部分投资是由来自美国等市场的出口收益不断增加的预期所推动。
Much of the robust corporate investment this year, especially in sectors such as textiles and consumer electronics, has been driven by expectations of ever-rising export earnings from markets such as the US.
但如果美国的需求衰减，那么这种投资可能马上就会显得轻率。公司若降低对出口领域的期望，将对进口造成直接而显著的影响。中国的大部分进口品要么是用于工厂升级改造的资本产品，要么是用于加工再出口的零部件。
But if the US appetite wanes, such investment might suddenly appear rash. A retrenchment in corporate ambitions in the export sector would have an immediate and marked impact on imports, most of which are either capital goods for factory upgrades or components destined to be processed for re-export.
在1998至1999年亚洲金融危机造成的后果中，中国进口收缩的区域性连锁反应非常明显。如果再度发生这种情况，那么其影响可能会更为巨大，尤其是对邻国日本而言。
The regional knock-on effect of a Chinese import contraction was evident in the aftermath of the Asian crisis in 1998/99. If it happened again, its impact especially on neighbouring Japan - would probably be even greater.
所以，当中国经济似乎在今年势将驶向软着陆之时，种种围绕内需和外需来源的不确定性，将一起给2005年描绘出一幅更为严峻的局面。
So while the Chinese economy appears set to coast to a soft landing this year, uncertainties surrounding sources of internal and external demand conspire to paint a more bleak scenario for 2005.