关于新季——不能不知的十个统计事实（2008版）（2）

◆ 作者 donatino ◆ 分类 一般分类, 重要美剧新闻 ◆ 时间 2008-10-3

如果不考虑类型，成功的剧集与失败的剧集在比例上大致相等

自从1999年秋天以来的九个播出季中，美国五大公共电视网ABC、CBS、FOX、NBC、CW（CW由过去的UPN和WB合并）一共播出了210部新情景喜剧（Comedy）、238部新情节剧（Drama）和217部无脚本节目（Unscripted series，比如真人秀、游戏节目等）。

在210部情景喜剧中，获得第二季的（我们称之为"成功"，下同）新剧有64部，新剧存活率为30％；238部情节剧中，成功的新剧有78部，新剧存活率为33％；217部无脚本节目中，成功的有63部，新剧存活率为29％。我们发现，这个比例惊人地巧合。

数据表如下：


情景喜剧

季 ABC CBS FOX ABC UPN WB CW 合计
1999-2000 0/5 (0%) 1/4 (25%) 2/4 (50%) 1/7 (14%) 1/3 (33%) 1/3 (33%) 6/26 (23%)
2000-2001 4/8 (50%) 1/4 (25%) 1/2 (50%) 2/10 (20%) 1/2 (50%) 1/4 (25%) 10/30 (33%)
2001-2002 2/4 (50%) 1/3 (33%) 2/8 (25%) 2/8 (25%) 1/3 (33%) 3/7 (43%) 11/33 (33%)
2002-2003 3/5 (60%) 1/4 (25%) 2/5 (40%) 1/4 (25%) 1/2 (50%) 1/6 (17%) 9/26 (35%)
2003-2004 1/5 (20%) 1/2 (50%) 1/6 (17%) 0/5 (0%) 2/5 (40%) 1/5 (20%) 6/28 (21%)
2004-2005 2/4 (50%) 0/2 (0%) 2/4 (50%) 2/4 (50%) 1/3 (33%) 1/2 (50%) 8/19 (42%)
2005-2006 0/5 (0%) 2/4 (50%) 2/4 (50%) 1/3 (33%) 1/2 (50%) 0/2 (0%) 6/20 (30%)
2006-2007 2/6 (33%) 1/3 (33%) 1/3 (33%) 1/5 (20%) 1/1 (100%) 6/18 (33%)
2007-2008 1/4 (25%) 1/2 (50%) 0/3 (0%) 0/0 (0%) 0/1 (0%) 2/10 (20%)
合计 15/46 (33%) 9/28 (32%) 13/39 (33%) 10/46 (22%) 8/20 (40%) 8/29 (28%) 1/2 (50%) 64/210 (30%)

情节剧

季 ABC CBS FOX ABC UPN WB CW 合计
1999-2000 1/4 (25%) 3/5 (60%) 0/5 (0%) 3/6 (50%) 0/3 (0%) 4/7 (57%) 11/30 (37%)
2000-2001 0/2 (0%) 3/6 (50%) 2/6 (33%) 1/4 (25%) 1/4 (25%) 1/2 (50%) 8/24 (33%)
2001-2002 1/4 (25%) 2/6 (33%) 1/3 (33%) 2/3 (67%) 1/1 (100%) 1/2 (50%) 8/19 (42%)
2002-2003 1/7 (14%) 3/6 (50%) 0/5 (0%) 2/5 (40%) 0/3 (0%) 1/3 (33%) 7/29 (24%)
2003-2004 0/7 (0%) 3/6 (50%) 2/6 (33%) 1/3 (33%) 0/1 (0%) 2/3 (67%) 8/26 (31%)
2004-2005 4/8 (50%) 2/4 (50%) 1/4 (25%) 1/6 (17%) 1/2 (50%) 0/2 (0%) 9/26 (35%)
2005-2006 1/6 (17%) 4/6 (67%) 2/5 (40%) 0/7 (0%) 0/2 (0%) 1/5 (20%) 8/31 (26%)
2006-2007 4/9 (44%) 2/4 (50%) 0/5 (0%) 2/6 (33%) 0/2 (0%) 8/26 (31%)
2007-2008 4/7 (57%) 1/5 (20%) 1/4 (25%) 3/8 (38%) 2/3 (67%) 11/27 (41%)
合计 16/54 (30%) 23/48 (48%) 9/43 (21%) 15/48 (31%) 3/16 (19%) 10/24 (42%) 2/5 (40%) 78/238 (33%)

无脚本节目／真人秀／游戏节目

季 ABC CBS FOX ABC UPN WB CW 合计
1999-2000 3/4 (75%) 2/3 (67%) 0/3 (0%) 0/1 (0%) 0/1 (0%) 0/0 (0%) 5/12 (42%)
2000-2001 1/2 (50%) 0/0 (0%) 1/4 (25%) 2/3 (67%) 0/2 (0%) 1/1 (100%) 5/12 (42%)
2001-2002 1/8 (13%) 1/2 (50%) 2/6 (33%) 3/4 (75%) 0/1 (0%) 0/2 (0%) 7/23 (30%)
2002-2003 2/9 (22%) 1/2 (50%) 1/7 (14%) 4/8 (50%) 1/1 (100%) 3/4 (75%) 12/31 (39%)
2003-2004 2/6 (33%) 0/0 (0%) 4/10 (40%) 2/3 (67%) 0/3 (0%) 1/3 (33%) 9/25 (36%)
2004-2005 3/8 (38%) 1/5 (20%) 3/9 (33%) 2/11 (18%) 0/3 (0%) 1/3 (33%) 10/39 (26%)
2005-2006 1/6 (17%) 0/2 (0%) 0/2 (0%) 2/6 (33%) 0/1 (0%) 0/1 (0%) 3/18 (17%)
2006-2007 1/12 (8%) 0/2 (0%) 2/6 (33%) 2/5 (40%) 1/1 (100%) 6/26 (23%)
2007-2008 3/9 (33%) 0/5 (0%) 2/4 (50%) 1/9 (11%) 0/4 (0%) 6/31 (19%)
合计 17/64 (27%) 5/21 (24%) 15/51 (29%) 18/50 (36%) 1/12 (8%) 6/14 (43%) 1/5 (20%) 63/217 (29%)



表格阅读方法：17/64 (27%)－－当年存活的新剧数目／当年播出的新剧总数（新剧存活率）

分电视网来看，NBC在无脚本节目（主要是真人秀）方面拔得头筹，他们九年来的无脚本节目存活率为36％。但是NBC却在情景喜剧方面相当糟糕，情景喜剧的存活率仅有22％。原UPN和NBC的情况正好相反，无脚本节目（真人秀）存活率只有可怜的8％，而情景喜剧存活率达到40％。最值得一提的是，中国观众最感兴趣的情节剧（Drama）方面，CBS新剧存活率高达难以置信的48％。如此说来，CBS今年的四部新情节剧："The Mentalist"、"Eleventh Hour"、"The Ex List" 和 "Harper's Island"中至少有两部可以活到第二季。但是这个结论并不一定准确－－就以CBS为例，他们去年的五部情节剧 "Cane"、"Moonlight"、"Viva Laughlin"、"Swingtown" 和 "The Man" 竟无一部生存，全部被取消。"The Man" 甚至都没有机会正式播出。

在2008－2009播出季的新剧中，一共有12部情景喜剧，22部情节剧和20个无脚本节目。